제2차 남북정상회담의 배경과 전망

by master on Aug 13, 2007
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김병로 (서울대 통일연구소 연구교수)  ‘화려한 휴가’, ‘디 워’에 이어 2007년 8월의 한반도를 뜨겁게 달굴 ‘남북정상회담2’가 개봉 20여일 앞두고 전격 발표되었다. 갑작스런 정부의 발표에 정치권과 국민은 잠시 당황했지만, 이내 또 하나의 ‘볼거리’를 횡재한 관객이 되어 ‘남북정상회담2’의 상영을 기대하고 있다.

  오는 8월 28일부터 30일까지 평양에서 개최되는 제2차 남북정상회담은 지난 첫 정상회담(78%)보다 조금 높은 80%라는 국민들의 찬성과 지지 속에 일단 출발했다. 오랜만에 할리우드 블록버스터인 6자회담을 제치고 남북합작품이 나온데 대한 국민들의 관심과 성원이 아닌가 싶다.

1. 정상회담의 성사 배경

  정부의 발표대로라면 김정일 위원장은 노무현 정부 초기부터 정상회담을 원했으나 지금이 가장 적기라고 판단했다. 김정일 위원장은 미국의 초강경정책이 지속된 지난 7년 동안 자신의 신변불안 때문에 감히 서울에 내려올 엄두를 내지 못했다. 다행히 2.13합의 이후 BDA 문제를 푸는 과정에서 부시 행정부가 보여준 전향적 태도에 고무되어 노무현 대통령을 상대할 여유를 가진 것 같다. 그러나 그에게 서울은 여전히 안보사각지대며 “안전하게 모실 수 있는 곳”은 평양뿐이다.

  노무현 정부 못지않게 이번 남북정상회담을 다급하게 원한 쪽은 김정일 위원장이다. 북한은 지금 내부 경제상황이 극도로 악화된 데다 핵문제로 인해 국제사회의 외교적 고립까지 겹쳐 어려운 처지다. 후계자 문제도 불안하고 민심이반도 걱정거리다. 이 총체적 난국을 극복하려면 일본으로부터 300억 달러의 식민지 배상금과 경협자금이 들어와야 하고, 이를 위해서는 미국이 묶어 놓고 있는 ‘테러지원국’과 ‘적성국교역법’의 족쇄를 풀지 않으면 안된다. 때문에 북한은 북핵 불능화의 이행조건으로 ‘테러지원국’ 해제와 적성국 교역법 적용 해제를 미국에 요구하고 있다. 북한은 지금시점이 미국과의 관계개선을 위한 적기라고 판단, 한반도 평화무드 조성을 위한 남북정상회담이라는 카드를 꺼내 든 것이다.

  노무현 정부로서는 정상회담에서 “잃을 것은 레임덕이요 얻을 것은 평화의 노벨상”이다. 한미 FTA 외에 이렇다 할 성과를 내놓을 게 없는 노무현 정부는 임기 내에 치러지는 남북정상회담으로 동북아 중심과 평화번영정책의 대미를 장식하는 치적으로 삼기에 적격이다.

  더군다나 노무현 대통령과 여당에는 야권주도의 대선가도에서 여권바람을 일으킬 수 있는 호재가 아닐 수 없다. 남북정상회담이 정치적으로 이용되어서는 안된다고 주장하지만, 이미 회담 자체가 대선정국에 막강한 영향을 미칠 것은 자명하다. 정상회담이 성사되었다는 것 자체만으로도 일단 보수층에 기반을 두고 있는 한나라당에는 악재로 작용할 가능성이 크다. 무엇보다 북한이 이번 대선정국에서 한나라당의 집권을 저지하겠다는 주도면밀한 계산을 하고 있기 때문이다.

  작년까지만 해도 북한은「신년공동사설」에서 ‘3대공조’라든가 ‘반보수대연합’ 등의 담론으로 대남정책을 구사했었다. 그러나 올해에는 처음으로 ‘한나라당’을 ‘반동보수세력’으로 거론하며 “올해의 대통령 선거를 계기로 매국적인 친미반동보수세력을 결정적으로 매장”해 버리자고 주장했다. 알다시피 북한의 「신년공동사설」은 ‘지도자’의 지침이 담겨진 것으로 북한주민들에게는 ‘무조건 집행’하도록 하달되는 군사적 명령과 같다. 그런 점에서 평양의 지난 6.15민족행사에서 한나라당 의원의 주석단 참여문제로 갈등을 빚은 것이나 이번 부산의 8.15민족행사가 같은 이유로 무산된 것은 이 문제에 대한 북한의 집착증이 얼마나 심각한가를 보여준다.

  그러나 정상회담의 성과가 부실하여 비판적 여론이 거세지면 여권에 오히려 역풍이 불어 닥칠 수도 있다. 1차 정상회담에서의 학습효과와 선거철마다 부는 북풍의 면역 때문에 그것이 실제 득표결과로 나타날 가능성은 미미할 것이란 관측도 꽤 설득력 있다. 따라서 이번 8.28정상회담은 남북정상의 역사적 첫 만남이라는 상징성이 가졌던 6.15정상회담과는 달리 실제적인 성과를 내지 않으면 거친 비판을 면키 어려운 부담을 안고 출발한다.

2. 정상회담의 주요 의제와 전망

  이번 정상회담의 주요 의제는 실무준비위원회에서 본격적으로 논의하겠지만, 회담개최를 위한 남북합의문을 근거로 보면 평화문제와 경제협력, 통일문제가 다루어질 것으로 예상된다. 남북합의문은 이번 회담의 의의를 “한반도 평화와 민족공동의 번영과 조국통일”로 언급하고 있기 때문이다. 지난번 첫 정상회담에서 다루지 못한 한반도 평화문제가 회담합의문에 일단 명기된 것은 주목해볼 대목이다. 2000년 당시 김대중정부는 통일방안, 한반도 평화문제, 인도주의 문제, 교류협력 등 네 가지 의제를 제안했으나, 한반도 평화문제에 관해서는 합의를 이끌어 내지 못했다. 그런데 이번에는 양자가 한반도 평화문제에 관해 의미 있는 논의를 할 것으로 보인다.

  한반도 평화문제는 정전협정을 평화협정으로 전환하는 법적·외교적 절차와 남북간의 정치적 화해 및 군사적 신뢰를 포함하는 포괄적 의제다. 종전선언이나 평화협정은 협정당사자인 미국과 중국이 함께 논의해야 할 문제로 이번 남북정상회담에서 다뤄질 사안은 아니다. 그러나 평화협정에 포함될 주한미군 문제나 휴전선의 국경획정, 서해상의 북방한계선(NLL) 재설정 문제는 한국의 안보에 매우 중요한 사안들이다.

  군사적 신뢰문제는 한반도 평화체제를 구성하는 실질적인 부분이다. 물론 북한은 북미군사회담을 줄곧 요구하고 있고 선군정치를 표방하고 있어서 남북군축과 같은 전향적인 선언이 나올지는 미지수다. 그러나 이미 핵무기를 보유한 북한이 한미합동군사훈련 저지 및 개성공단의 물류이동 촉진 등 경협확대를 위한 남북간 군사협력에 적극 호응해 올 가능성도 있다.

  그렇지만 정부가 의제로 설정하고 있는 한반도 비핵화와 북핵문제 해결은 정치적 선언으로 그칠 공산이 크다. 북한은 핵문제를 워낙 ‘북핵문제’가 아닌 ‘조미(朝美)사이의 핵문제’로 규정하고 있는데다, 핵문제 해결을 위한 2단계 불능화 이행조건으로 미국의 테러지원국 해제나 적성국교역법 적용 해제를 걸고 있기 때문에 남북정상의 합의로 해결될 문제가 아니다. 따라서 북핵문제는 김정일 위원장이 비핵화 의지와 핵포기 발언을 선언적으로 천명하는 것만으로도 파급력은 대단할 것이다. 그 정도의 성과만 나와도 북미간 북핵문제 해결에 긍정적 무드를 형성하며 6자회담의 디딤돌로 사용하기에 충분하기 때문이다.

  남측이 내놓을 수 있는 유일한 카드, 그리고 북측이 가장 원하는 것은 역시 경제협력이다. 이미 8천만 달러 규모의 생필품과 북한 광산개발 프로젝트가 합의된 만큼 그간 장관급회담에서 논의되었던 200만KW 전력송전, 철도·도로·항만 등 사회간접자본(SOC)개발, 5대기간산업 현대화 지원 등 남북경제공동체 형성을 목표로 한 대대적인 경협 프로젝트로 남한은 승부수를 던질 것이다.

  남한이 ‘경제지원’을 주고 강력히 요구할 수 있는 부분은 인도주의 사안이다. 이산가족 상봉확대, 납북자·국군포로 송환요구는 북한이 가장 곤혹스러워하는 문제다. 이러한 인도주의 의제에 대해 김정일 위원장이 2002년 9월 일본 고이즈미 총리에게 그랬듯 납북사실을 시인하고 납북자와 국군포로를 몇 명이라도 돌려보낸다면, 남북정상회담은 그야말로 화려한 무대가 된다. 지난 2000년 정상회담에서도 김정일 위원장이 북쪽에서 전혀 사용하지 않던 ‘탈북자’라는 말을 꺼냈던 것을 상기하면 이번에도 깜짝 이벤트를 기대해 봄직하다. 노무현 대통령이 ‘대북퍼주기’ 비판을 잠재우고 김정일 위원장이 ‘반보수대연합’의 목적을 이루려면 인도주의 문제에 대한 북측의 호응을 반드시 얻어내야 한다.

  김정일 위원장이 노무현 대통령에게 마지막으로 확인하고 싶은 것이 통일문제가 아닐까 생각된다. 6.15정상회담에서 이미 남북연합과 낮은 단계 연방제의 ‘공통성’을 인정하고 계속 논의해 나가기로 합의했기 때문에 이번에는 보다 진전된 제도화 방안을 내놓아야 한다. 물론 북한은 임기 말의 노무현 정부와 통일방안 논의를 통해 실질적 성과를 얻을 수 있다고 기대하지는 않겠지만, 참관지 제한 철폐와 국가보안법 폐지 등을 요구하며 압박해 올 것이다. 노대통령은 이런 민감한 주제들에 대해서는 현실주의적 논법으로 대응해야 할 것이다.

  7년이라는 오랜 기다림 끝에 어렵게 성사된 2차 남북정상회담이 아무쪼록 6자회담의 비핵화 프로세스를 가속화함으로써 한반도의 평화와 안정, 민족의 번영·발전에 새 길을 활짝 열 수 있기를 희망한다. 과감하고 솔직한 화법을 구사하며 거침없이 얘기하는 노무현과 김정일, 두 주연들이 펼칠 한여름 밤의 기발한 재담과 예측불허의 ‘남북정상회담2’가 자못 기대된다.

김병로 (서울대 통일연구소 연구교수)
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