천안함 미스테리를 보는 두 시각

by master on Apr 06, 2010
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이상신천안함이 침몰한 지 2주 가까이 지났지만 여전히 침몰 원인에 대해선 아무도 확실한 결론을 내리지 못하고 있다.  설상가상으로 군과 정부의 서투른 대응과 잇단 말 바꾸기로 여론의 혼란은 더욱 심해지고 있다. 흥미로운 것은 천안함의 침몰원인을 보는 시각이 정치 이념에 따라 양분되고 있는 현상이 관찰되는 점이다. 즉, 보수 언론과 반북 시민단체 등에서는 천안함의 침몰원인을 북한이 설치한 기뢰 혹은 북 잠수정의 어뢰 공격이라고 거의 단정적으로 결론짓고 있는 반면, 이른바 진보 언론과 야당 쪽에선 북한의 개입설을 반박하면서 천안함 내부의 문제점으로 인한 사고였을 가능성 쪽으로 많이 기운 듯 한 모습을 보이고 있다.

대표적인 보수인사인 이동복씨는 인터넷 매체 프리존 뉴스에 올린 컬럼에서 “이번 ‘천안함’의 침몰은 북한의 소행임이 너무나 분명”하다고 단정지으면서 남한 정부의 단호한 대응을 주문하였다. 역시 보수반북 단체인 “애국단체총연합회”는 천안함 사건을 “북한이 저지른 테러”라고 규정하면서, 정부는 “최악의 경우 전쟁을 각오”할 필요가 있다고 역설하고 있다. 또 조선일보 또한 “북 잠수정, 21차례나 몰래 동해 들락거렸다” 혹은 “어뢰 공격 가능성 증폭” 등의 제목을 단 기사들을 연이어 보도하면서 천안함 사건을 북한과 연관짓고 있는 상황이다.

이와는 대조적으로 경향신문, 한겨례, 프레시안 들의 진보적 매체들은 북한의 관련성에 대해 상대적으로 조심스러운 태도를 보인다. 김근식 교수는 프레시안에 기고한 컬럼에서 “지레짐작으로 북한연루설을 흘리는 것은 매우 위험”하다라고 경고하며, 이를 “북풍 유혹에서 비롯된 북한연루설”이 아닌 가라고 반문하고 있다. 민주당이 송영길의원은 국회연설에서 “북한이 UFO 수준의 잠수정과 레이더에 안 잡히는 스텔스 어뢰 등 신병기를 개발했거나 아니면 우리 해군의 레이다 시스템에 심각한 결함이 있다”라며 북한 개입설을 신랄히 비판했다.

정치 이념의 차이는 이처럼 사실에 대한 판단에까지 영향을 미치고 있다. 애당초 보수나 진보 모두 천안함의 침몰에 대해 갖고 있는 정보는 동일하다. 같은 정보에서 출발하였지만 한국의 보수와 진보는 침몰원인에 대해 매우 상반된 결론에 도달하고 있는데, 정치심리학적 입장에서 이러한 현상을 설명해보자면 다음과 같은 몇 가지 가설이 가능하다.

첫째, 선택적 노출(selective exposure) 가설이다. 인지부조화(cognitive dissonance) 이론에서 출발한 선택적 노출 이론에 따르면, 사람들은 자신이 현재 가지고 있는 태도를 강화시킬 수 있는 정보만 취사선택하는 경향이 있고, 자신의 기존 태도를 부정할 수 있는 정보는 받아들이기 거부하거나 아예 귀를 닫아버리는 경향이 있다. 이 이론을 천안함 사태에 적용시켜 보자면 북한 정권의 도발 가능성을 항상 강조해왔던 보수 진영은 이번 천안함 사건에 관련된 여러 정보 중 북한과의 관련성을 시사하는 정보들만 골라 받아들여서 자신들의 기존 태도를 강화하려 할 것이다. 마찬가지로 북한 정권의 합리성과 대화 가능성을 상대적으로 강조해왔던 진보 진영에서는 무의식적으로 북한과 관련된 정보들을 무시하고, 천안함 내부 문제를 강조하는 태도를 가지게 되었을 것이다.

둘째, 합리적 선택 가설이다. 이는 양 진영이 자신들에게 가장 이익을 극대화시키는 방향으로 천안함 침몰원인에 대한 태도를 결정했음을 의미한다. 천안함의 침몰에 북한이 관련되어 있을 때 보수 진영의 정치적 이익이 극대화되며, 이에 따라 보수 진영은 북한 어뢰설 혹은 기뢰설을 기정사실화하게 되었을 것이다. 마찬가지로 북한과의 대결대신 대화와 공존을 강조하는 진보진영의 입장에서 보면 특히 지방선거를 코앞에 둔 이 시점에서 “북풍(北風)”의 악몽이 재현되는 것은 어떻게 해서라도 막아야 하는 상황일 것이며, 이런 정치적 이해득실의 차원에서 천안함 침몰원인에 대한 진보진영의 태도가 결정되었다고 할 수도 있을 것이다.

셋째, 인지과정의 차이 가설이다. 테틀록(Tetlock)이 제시한 “우파의 경직성(the rigidity of the right)" 이론에 따르면 미국의 보수적 시민들은 상대적으로 인지과정이 단순하고 경직되어 있으며 반론에 대해 덜 관용적인 등의 특징이 있다. 이는 다른 정치적 이념을 가진 사람들은 정보를 받아들이고 처리하는 인지 과정의 스타일에 있어서 차이가 있음을 의미하며, 더 나아가 정치이념의 차이가 사실은 이 인지 스타일의 차이에서 비롯되었을 수 있음을 암시하기도 한다. 이 이론을 천안함 사태에 적용시키자면 보수 진영이 북한 관련설을 지지하는 것은 그것이 다른 설명보다 이해하기 쉽고 간단한 방식이기 때문일 것이다.

넷째, 이미지 가설이다. 허먼(Hermann), 커탬(Cottam), 저비스(Jervis)등은 국제 관계에 있어 상대 국가에 대해 갖고 있는 고정관념(stereotype) 혹은 이미지(image)가 정책 결정에 있어 지대한 영향을 미친 다는 이미지 이론을 주장했다. “적국(enemy)”, “동맹국(ally)”, “쇠퇴국(degenerative)”, “야만국(barbarian)”, “종속국(dependent)”, “제국(imperialist)”, “불량국가(rogue state)” 등등의 고정관념이 그 상대방 국가에 대한 태도와 정책 결정에 있어 결정적 차이를 가져온다는 주장이다. 한국의 보수와 진보진영은 북한에 대해 다른 이미지를 갖고 있으며, 이 이미지의 차이가 천안함 침몰원인에 대한 판단에도 영향을 끼쳤다고 볼 수 있다. 즉, 북한을 적국 혹은 불량국가로 보고 있는 보수 진영은 그 고정관념에 따라 더욱 쉽게 이번 사건도 북한의 소행일 것이라고 판단했을 것이며, 북한을 쇠퇴국 혹은 분단된 동포 정도로 인식하는 이미지를 갖고 있는 진보 진영은 북한의 개입 가능성을 축소하여 판단했을 것이다.

이러한 여러 가설 중 어떤 것이 가장 사실에 부합할 지는 구체적인 데이터의 분석을 통해서 밝혀질 일일 것이다. 국내의 통일 및 북한에 대한 연구는 지나치게 정책 생산에 초점이 맞추어진 감이 있는데, 앞으로는 좀 더 다양한 시각에서 남북 문제를 연구할 수 있는 풍토가 조성되기를 바란다.

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