한중관계의 분수령

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이상신(서울대 통일평화연구원 HK평화인문학 연구교수)

서울대학교 통일평화연구원이 매년 실시하고 있는 통일의식조사는 올해로 5년차를 맞았다. 매년 7월 말 ~ 8월 초에 조사되고 있는 이 조사는 그 동안 통일과 북한 문제에 대해 국내에서 가장 권위 있고 주목받는 서베이로 성장했다. 2011년의 조사결과도 많은 언론과 학계의 주목을 받았는데, 여러 흥미로운 결과가 있었지만 그 중에서도 특기할 만한 여론의 변화는 중국에 대한 인식과 감정의 변화였다. 2010년 조사결과에서 천안함 사건 이후 중국에 대한 인식이 급속도로 바뀌고 있다는 내용을 발표한 바 있다. 올해도 중국에 대한 여론의 변화의 추이와 정도가 작년의 그것과 유사한 것으로 조사되었는데, 이는 중국에 대한 인식 변화가 일회성 사건에 의해 영향 받은 것이라기보다는 좀 더 근본적인 차원에서의 한중관계 변화를 반영하고 있음을 시사한다.

국제관계에 대한 여론은 때때로 급격한 변화를 보이는 경우가 있다. 2008년 일본에 대한 여론의 변화가 그러했다. “한반도 평화에 가장 위협적인 국가”를 묻는 설문에서는 이 통일의식조사가 시작된 2007년 이후 항상 북한이 제 1순위로 꼽혀왔는데, 딱 한번, 2008년에 일본이 가장 위협적인 국가라는 답변이 34.4%로 북한의 33.6%를 근소한 차이로 앞선 적이 있었다. 이는 2008년 당시 일본이 교과서에 독도를 일본영토로 표기하는 문제 때문에 국민적 공분을 산 결과로 짐작된다. 그러나 독도문제로 촉발되었던 반일감정은 다음 해인 2009년 북한이 제 2차 핵실험을 하면서 급반전되는데, 2009년에는 북한이 가장 위협적인 국가라는 답변이 52.7%였고 일본이 위협적이라는 응답자의 비율은 절반인 17.6%로 떨어졌다.

 

대중인식 급속 악화…일시적 변화 아닐 수 있어

 

중국에 대한 인식변화는 2008년 반일감정의 촉발 같은 일시적 변화가 아닐 수 있다는 점에 그 심각성이 있다. 천안함 사건 후 4개월이 지난 시점에서 실시되었던 2010년 통일의식조사에서 처음으로 중국에 대한 인식이 급속히 악화되었음이 조사되었다. 작년 조사에서 한반도에 가장 위협을 주는 국가로는 북한이 꼽혔지만 (55.5%), 처음으로 중국이 일본을 제치고 두 번째로 위험한 나라라고 조사되었다 (24.5%). 그리고 이 중국으로부터의 위협도 증가는 일시적인 것이 아니었음이 2011년 조사에서 확인되고 있는 데, 연평도 사건에도 불구하고 북한이 가장 위협적인 국가라는 답변은 오히려 46%로 줄어든 반면 중국의 위협도는 33.6%로 대폭 상승한 것이다.

중국에 대한 부정적 인식 증가는 여러 곳에서 드러나고 있다. 예를 들어, 중국을 가장 가까운 국가로 꼽는 비율은 2007년 이후 꾸준히 줄어드는 추세로, 2007년 10.1%에서 올해는 5.2%밖에 되지 않았다. 또, 만약 한반도에 전쟁이 일어난다면 중국이 어떤 태도를 취할 것이라고 생각하느냐는 물음에서, 북한을 도울 것이라는 답변이 2010년에는 55.5%였고 올해는 그것보다 더 늘어난 62.8%를 기록했다. 그런데 2007년 첫 조사에서 중국이 북한을 도울 것이라는 답변은 불과 26.8%였다. 불과 5년 만에 234%의 증가율을 보인 것이다. 한반도 전쟁에서 중국이 한국을 도울 것이라고 예측하는 사람은 2007년에도 거의 없었지만, 대신 절반을 넘는 사람들은 어느 한쪽을 노골적으로 편드는 대신 중국이 자국의 이익을 따를 것이라고 답변했었다(56.4%). 그런데 2010년과 2011년에 중국이 자국의 이익을 따를 것이라는 의견은 37.4%, 31%로 계속 줄어들면서, 북한을 도울 것이라는 인식이 대신 계속 늘어나고 있음이 관찰되었다.

이러한 변화는 단순히 천안함 사건 이후 수습과정에서 중국이 노골적으로 북한을 옹호하고 나섰다는 것에서만 이유를 찾기보다는, 미국에 이어 세계 제 2의 강대국으로 급속히 부상한 중국의 위상변화를 한국의 여론이 민감하게 반영하고 있다고 봐야 할 것이다. 중국의 한반도에 대한 영향력 강화는 남북한 통일을 위해 중국의 협조가 “매우 필요”하다는 응답이 2008년 25.3%에서 2011년에는 43.2%로 급격히 증가하고 있다는 점에서도 드러나고 있다.

 

한국여론, 동북아 정세 민감…정부·정치권, 심각히 인식해야

 

동북아 정세의 변화를 매우 민감하게 받아들이고 있는 한국의 여론은 따라서 정치권과 행정부에서도 심각하게 받아들여야 할 사안이다. 중국에 대한 인식이 계속 부정적으로 변화하다 끝내 중국을 “적”으로 인식하는 국민이 대다수가 되는 경우에는 대중 외교정책의 입안과 집행에도 상당한 제약이 있을 수밖에 없기 때문이다. 이런 면에서 아직도 중국을 협력 혹은 경쟁대상으로 보는 시각이 60.7%이고, 경계 혹은 적대의 대상으로 보는 시각은 2007년 이후 큰 변화 없는 39.3% 수준에 머무르고 있다는 점은 다행이라고 하겠다. 그러나 이렇게 중국의 위협도가 계속 심화된다면 앞으로는 한중관계에 대한 돌이킬 수 없는 족쇄로 작용할 수도 있다는 점에서 2011년 통일의식조사 결과는 매우 중요한 시사점을 제공하고 있다.


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