시험대에 오른 남북관계의 위기관리 능력, 대화의 여건을 만드는 것이 우선

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정은미 (서울대 통일평화연구소 선임연구원)남북교류협력사업의 상징이라고 할 수 있는 금강산관광이 시작된 지 어느덧 10년이 되었다. 그동안 약 180만명이 넘는 관광객이 금강산을 다녀왔다. 처음에는 가까운 육지를 놔두고 먼 바다를 돌아갔다. 하지만 몇 년 후 육로관광이 가능해지면서 금강산관광은 대중의 인기를 얻을 수 있었다. 육로관광이 시작되면서 군사분계선의 일부가 개방되고 50년 묵은 지뢰가 제거되고 인근 북측 군부대가 후방으로 배치되었다. 이처럼 남북경협사업은 경제적 영역을 넘어 군사적 영역까지 변화를 가져왔다. 그러나 이러한 성장의 이면에는 관광객 피격사건과 같은 그늘이 잠재하고 있다. 그리고 이 사건은 우리 정부의 남북관계의 위기관리 능력이 얼마나 부족한가를 여실히 보여주었다.

또 다른 남북경협의 상징인 개성공단의 첫 삽을 뜬지도 5년이 되었다. 북측의 저렴한 노동력과 토지 그리고 남한의 기술과 자본의 만남은 단순히 양측의 경제적 이익의 차원을 넘어 통일 기반의 하나로 ‘남북경제공동체’ 건설의 본보기로 인식되었다. 김영삼 정부의 민족공동체 통일방안은 통일을 점진적·단계적으로 이루어가자는 기조 하에서 경제공동체 형성의 필요성을 강조했으며, 김대중 정부의 대북화해협력정책에서는 화해·협력을 위한 현실적 토대 구축과 ‘사실상의 통일상태’ 추구로서 경제공동체 형성이 강조되었다. 나아가 노무현 정부의 평화번영정책에서는 동북아공동체 형성이라는 확대된 틀에서 남북경제공동체의 형성이 추구되었다. 이명박 정부의 상생공영정책(또는 비핵·개방·3000) 역시 전제조건에서 차이가 있지만 큰 방향은 과거 역대 정부의 기조와 크게 다르지 않다.

그러나 현재 개성공단이 처한 현실은 어떠한가. 개성공단이 활성화되기 위한 기본조건인 3통문제(통행·통관·통신)는 지난해 10월 2차 정상회담에서 합의해놓고도 전혀 해결되지 못한 채 종이 위에 잉크로 말라붙어 있다. 가동 중인 기업들의 생산속도에 북측의 노동력 제공이 따라가지 못해 입주한 기업체들은 제때 필요한 노동력을 확보하지 못해 생산에 차질을 빚고 있다. 어디 이뿐인가. 지난 11월 12일 북측당국은 전화통지문을 통해 12월 1일부터 군사분계선을 통한 모든 육로통행을 엄격히 제한, 차단할 것이라는 강경조치를 밝혔다. 이러한 조치를 발표하기 며칠 전인 11월 6일에는 장성급 군사회담 북측 대표단장인 김영철 일행이 개성공단을 둘러보고 간 것으로 알려지고 있다. 개성공단에 대한 모종의 중대한 결정을 내리기 위한 최종 점검의 조치로 판단된다. 이러한 북측당국의 행보는 개성공단에 대한 어두운 그림자를 예고하고 있다.

만일 북측이 시한부로 설정한 12월 1일 이전까지 우리 정부의 적절한 호응이 없다면 아마도 개성공단에 입주해있는 남측의 기업체 및 개성관광 관련 업체들이 당장 큰 어려움에 직면할 것이다. 그리고 남북관계는 더욱 꽁꽁 얼어붙을 뿐만 아니라 북측은 좀더 위협적인 대응을 통해 남한을 압박할 수도 있을 것이다. 이미 11월 13일부터 북측적십자사(조선적십자회)는 37년동안 이어져왔던 판문점을 경유한 모든 남북직통전화를 폐쇄하였다. 우리 정부는 이러한 북측의 대남강경조치들이 전형적인 북측의 통미봉남(通美封南) 전술이라고 해석할 수 있다. 하지만 북측의 모든 행동들을 통미봉남 전술이라고 돌리는데도 한계가 있다. 11월 12일 오후 북측 외무성 대변인은 담화를 통해 북핵 검증 방법을 현장방문, 문건확인, 기술자 인터뷰로 한정한다고 밝혔다. 언론들은 이것을 ‘시료채취 거부’에 초점을 맞췄다. 북측이 정말 통미봉남을 의도했다면 북미 직접대화를 강조하는 오바마 예비 정부와 불필요한 긴장을 만들 필요가 없을 것이다. 물론 퇴임이 임박한 부시 행정부와는 더 이상 협상할 것이 없다고 판단한 북측이 오바마 정부와의 협상에 대비하기 위한 조치라고 해석할 수도 있을 것이다.

문제는 우리 정부가 변화한 한반도 정세와 뒤틀린 남북관계를 주도적으로 풀 수 있는 리더십이 있는가가 관건이다. 이명박 대통령은 하루가 멀다하고 남측의 최고지도자인 대통령을 상스럽고 저급한 말로 욕하는 상대와 어떻게 대화를 하느냐하며 역성을 낼지도 모른다. 하지만 2001년부터 2003년까지 부시 행정부에서 대북협상 대사 및 특사와 케도(KEDO) 미국 대표로 일했던 찰스 프리처드가 그의 저서 『실패한 외교』에서 부시 정부시기 부적절한 언어 사용과 도덕적 접근이 북미관계를 오랫동안 뒤틀리게 한 중요한 요인 중 하나라고 지적한 것을 우리 정부가 진지하게 참고할 필요가 있다. 우리 정부는 어쩌면 북측의 ‘버르장머리’를 고치기 위해 장기간의 남북관계가 경색되는 것쯤은 감수해야 한다고 국민들에게 설득하고 싶을지도 모른다. 우리 정부의 공식적인 입장은 우호적 무시(benign neglect)이다. 북측의 비난에 맞대응하지 않고 유연하게 대처할 것이라고 한다. 진정성 있는 대화를 제의할 것이고 민간차원의 교류협력도 계속 권장할 것이며 북측식량상황에 따른 판단에 따라 동포애적·인도적 차원의 지원을 계속할 것이라고 한다. 그리고 현재는 남북관계의 일시적·과도기적 조정기이니 국민은 좀더 참고 기다려달라는 것이다. 그러나 가뜩이나 고환율, 고금리, 고실업율로 어려운 서민들에게 그러한 정부의 주장이 얼마나 설득력을 가질 수 있을지 모르겠다.

어쩌면 남북관계는 앞으로 수개월 아니면 그 이상의 긴 겨울을 보내야 할지도 모른다.  북측의 시선으로 보기에는 남한 정부가 6.15공동선언과 10.4선언 이행문제를 논의하기 위한 대화를 갖자면서도 민간단체의 대북 삐라 살포를 방관하고 있으며, 김정일 국방위원장 건강문제와 관련하여 급변사태 대책을 공공연하게 논의하고, 유엔 북측인권결의안 공동 제안국 참여 등 북측의 체제를 부정하고 위협하는 것으로 받아들여질 수 있다. 개성공단 문제의 경우 2단계로의 확대되기는커녕 1단계 시범사업 수준에서 벗어나지 못하고 있는 상황에 대해 북측은 불만이 크다.

돌이키기 어려운 남북관계의 파국을 바라지 않는다면 우리 정부는 사태의 핵심을 정확하게 파악하고 무시가 아닌 대화를 위한 여건을 주도적으로 만들 필요가 있다. 뒤늦게나마 우리 정부가 민간단체들의 대북삐라 살포 행위를 금지하는 법률적 방안을 강구중이라고 하는데 남북대화를 재개하는데 좋은 신호이다. 남북관계는 어느 정권에서나 긴장과 대화 사이의 줄타기가 있었다. 남북관계의 발전이냐 역행이냐는 상존하는 남북 간의 위기를 잘 관리할 수 있는 리더십이 과연 해당 정부에 있는가에 좌우되었다. 다시 한번 남북관계에서 현 정부의 위기관리 능력이 시험대에 올랐다. 아무쪼록 지혜를 모아 추운 겨울 얼어붙은 경제 불황 속에서 남북관계에서나마 훈풍이 불어주기를 기대해 본다. <끝>

정은미 (서울대 통일평화연구소 선임연구원)
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